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今天小編將為大家推薦一篇考研英語(yǔ)的題源，希望能幫助大家。
Shake ’em up, Mr Carney
卡尼，教教他們
How the Bank of England’s new governor (and the chancellor) should stimulate
the British economy
英國(guó)央行新行長(zhǎng)(還有財(cái)政大臣)應(yīng)該怎樣刺激英國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)?
Feb 2nd 2013 |From the printedition ON FEBRUARY 7th Mark Carney will appear before theTreasury Select Committee for his first formal grilling from British lawmakers since being named thenext governor of the Bank of England. This will be an important moment. MrCarney, hired away from the Bank of Canada, has recently given hints that hewants to shake up British monetary policy. He has talked about the need tostimulate an inert economy until it reaches “escape velocity”; he
has said thata central bank might need to “tie its hands” by announcing thresholds to bereached before it reduces stimulus; and he has suggested that the level ofnominal GDP—the cash value of output without adjusting for inflation—might be abetter target than inflation alone. This willingness to think afresh isadmirable. But Mr Carney must now connect the dots between his ideas.
英國(guó)央行行長(zhǎng)卡尼(Mark Carney)將于2 月7 日公開(kāi)露面，之后會(huì)接受財(cái)政部特別委員會(huì)英國(guó)立法委員的正式質(zhì)詢(xún)，這是他被任命為英國(guó)央行行長(zhǎng)以來(lái)的首次質(zhì)詢(xún)，并且十分重要。卡尼是英國(guó)從加拿大央行聘請(qǐng)過(guò)來(lái)的，最近他暗示希望重新調(diào)整英國(guó)貨幣政策。他談到疲軟的經(jīng)濟(jì)需要刺激一下，直到它達(dá)到“逃脫速度”，中央銀行需要“收一收手”，在減弱刺激之前宣布經(jīng)濟(jì)需要達(dá)到的水平。他還間接表示名義GDP(不進(jìn)行通脹調(diào)整的現(xiàn)金產(chǎn)出價(jià)值)比起通脹是更好的目標(biāo)。愿意重新思考經(jīng)濟(jì)解決方案令人欽佩，但是卡尼需要把自己的思想聯(lián)系在
一起
At the moment the Bank of England’s mission, set bythe chancellor of the exchequer, is to focus on an inflation target of 2%. Thatmakes sense in normal circumstances. But with short-term interest rates atalmost zero, the economy growing at barely 2% in nominal terms(and not at all if you factor in inflation) and many years of austerity ahead,it is worth temporarily reinterpreting that policy and focusing on nominal GDP.Our suggestion is that the bank, backed by the chancellor, George Osborne,should make clear that it will not tighten policy until nominal GDP, currently £1.5 trillion,gets to a level that is at least 10%higher than today.
目前財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)給英格蘭銀行設(shè)定的目標(biāo)是將通脹率控制在2%。這在經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況正常的情況下是可行的，但是由于短期利率幾乎為零，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)按名義價(jià)值計(jì)算只有2%(如果考慮通脹則沒(méi)有增長(zhǎng))。央行將在未來(lái)一些年內(nèi)實(shí)施財(cái)政緊縮，暫時(shí)重新解釋貨幣政策和著重于名義GDP 是很有必要的。我們的建議是：英格蘭央行應(yīng)該在奧斯本財(cái)相的支持下要清楚這一點(diǎn)，在名義GDP(目前為1.5 萬(wàn)億英鎊)基礎(chǔ)上至少10%之前，這項(xiàng)措施不會(huì)收緊政策。
When short-term interest rates are as low as they arenow, central bankers can loosen monetary conditions in two ways. They can useunconventional tools, such as “quantitative easing” (printing money to buybonds), to push down interest rates further along the yield curve. And they canguide people’s expectations of the future path of interest rates or inflation.If a central bank can credibly promise to keep monetary conditions loose evenas the economy recovers and inflation accelerates, it will, in effect, reducethe real level of interest rates today, and so boost the economy.
現(xiàn)在短期利率維持低位，央行行長(zhǎng)可以通過(guò)兩種方式寬松貨幣環(huán)境。他們可以使用非常規(guī)措施把利率按照收益曲線(xiàn)進(jìn)一步推低，如“量化寬松”(即印鈔票買(mǎi)債券)。另外他們還可以就對(duì)未來(lái)利率或通脹的走向?qū)θ藗兊钠谕右砸龑?dǎo)。如果央行在經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇和通脹加速的狀況下還能確保貨幣環(huán)境良好，那么這項(xiàng)措施能有效地降低現(xiàn)在的真實(shí)利率水平，也能繁榮經(jīng)濟(jì)。
The Bank of England has been willing to useunconventional tools. It was an early pioneerof quantitative easing; its morerecent “funding for lending” scheme for banks is a clever way to bring downbanks’ funding costs (and should be used to hit the nominal GDP target).ButBritain’s central bank has been less successful at mapping its future policypath. The Bank has interpreted its 2% inflation target in a flexible way,keeping monetary conditions loose even as inflation has stayed higher. But ithas not said how long such flexibility will last. Each time its interest-rate-settingcommittee meets, there is the possibility it will change its mind.
英國(guó)央行已經(jīng)愿意使用非常規(guī)措施。之前它就是量化寬松政策的最早實(shí)施者，新近的“融資換貸款計(jì)劃(funding for lending)”是降低銀行集資成本的一劑良方(也應(yīng)該應(yīng)用到實(shí)現(xiàn)名義GDP 上)。但是英國(guó)央行沒(méi)有很好地規(guī)劃自己未來(lái)的政策路線(xiàn)。央行對(duì)目標(biāo)通脹2%的解釋比較靈活，保持貨幣環(huán)境即使在通脹維持高位情況下依舊寬松。但它沒(méi)有說(shuō)這靈活性要持續(xù)多久。央行每次開(kāi)利率會(huì)議都有可能改變主意。
That is where the nominal GDP target comes in. By promising to keep monetary conditions loose until nominal GDP has risen by 10%,the Bank would provide certainty that interest rates will stay low even as theeconomy recovers. That will encourage investment and spending. At the same timean explicit target of 10% would set a limit to the looseness,preventingpeople’s expectations for inflation becoming permanently unhinged. It is an approach similar in spirit to the Federal Reserve’s recent commitment not toraise interest rates until America’s unemployment rate falls below 6.5%.
這就是為什么會(huì)使用名義GDP。通過(guò)允諾在名義GDP 升至10%之前保持貨幣環(huán)境寬松，央行保證利率維持在低位，即使經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)。這樣就會(huì)鼓勵(lì)投資和消費(fèi)。同時(shí)， 10%的明確目標(biāo)為寬松設(shè)置上限，防止人們對(duì)通脹的期望長(zhǎng)久混亂。在本質(zhì)精神上，這項(xiàng)措施類(lèi)似于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(the Federal Reserve)近期承諾提升利率直到美國(guó)失業(yè)率降至6.5%以下。
This is not a perfect answer. Critics point out thatnominal GDP is hard to measure—and that no one knows exactly how big theshortfall in nominal GDP is, particularly since Britain’s productivity hasplunged since the financial crisis. Against that, a 10% increase is a fairlyconservative and clear target. Adopting it would be better for the Bank’scredibility than repeatedly missing the inflation target.
但這項(xiàng)措施不能完全解決問(wèn)題。評(píng)論指出名義GDP 難以衡量，沒(méi)人準(zhǔn)確知道名義GDP 差額有多大，尤其是財(cái)政危機(jī)導(dǎo)致英國(guó)生產(chǎn)效率跳水之后。在此背景下，10%的增長(zhǎng)相當(dāng)保守，但目標(biāo)明確。采取這項(xiàng)增長(zhǎng)比不斷錯(cuò)失通脹目標(biāo)要有利于央行信譽(yù)。
Another worry is that all the growth would comethrough inflation. Sterling would fall, so imports would become pricier. Assetprices might bubble up, though Mr Carney could use other tools to cool them,such as limiting mortgage lending. There is in fact little risk of an unwantedboom. All this will take place as public spending is squeezed and Britain’smain trading partners in the euro zone are likely to be struggling.
再一個(gè)擔(dān)憂(yōu)是其它增長(zhǎng)都在通脹中發(fā)生：英鎊會(huì)貶值，因而進(jìn)口更昂貴，資產(chǎn)價(jià)格或許會(huì)產(chǎn)生泡沫，盡管卡尼可以使用限制抵押貸款等其它措施為其降溫。事實(shí)上發(fā)生預(yù)期外經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)幾乎不存在。當(dāng)公共開(kāi)支受擠壓，英國(guó)在歐元區(qū)的主要貿(mào)易伙伴可能艱難度日時(shí)，這一切都會(huì)發(fā)生。
The last problem is Mr Osborne. A temporarynominal-GDP target needs his explicit support.He should give it, becauseagainst a background of tight fiscal policy, monetary policy is the best macroeconomic lever that Britain has.
最后的問(wèn)題在于奧斯本(Osborne)，暫時(shí)的名義GDP 目標(biāo)需要他明確支持。他應(yīng)該支持這個(gè)目標(biāo)，因?yàn)樵谪?cái)政緊縮狀況下，貨幣政策是英國(guó)最好的宏觀調(diào)控杠桿。名義國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(Nominal GDP)：指的是一國(guó)(或地區(qū))一年以?xún)?nèi)在其境內(nèi)生產(chǎn)出的全部最終產(chǎn)品和勞務(wù)的市場(chǎng)價(jià)值總和。GDP，作為國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)核算體系的核心指標(biāo)，是衡量一個(gè)國(guó)家(或地區(qū))綜合實(shí)力的重要指標(biāo)，如我們說(shuō)的經(jīng)濟(jì)要達(dá)到8%的增長(zhǎng)目標(biāo)，指的就是國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值，亦即GDP 要比去年增長(zhǎng)8%。量化寬松(QE：Quantitative Easing)：主要是指中央銀行在實(shí)行零利率或近似零利率政策后，通過(guò)購(gòu)買(mǎi)國(guó)債等中長(zhǎng)期債券，增加基礎(chǔ)貨幣供給，向市場(chǎng)注入大量流動(dòng)性資金的干預(yù)方式，以鼓勵(lì)開(kāi)支和借貸，也被簡(jiǎn)化地形容為間接增印鈔票。量化指的是擴(kuò)大一定數(shù)量的貨幣發(fā)行，寬松即減少銀行的資金壓力。當(dāng)銀行和金融機(jī)構(gòu)的有價(jià)證券被央行收購(gòu)時(shí)，新發(fā)行的錢(qián)幣便被成功地投入到私有銀行體系。量化寬松政策所涉及的政府債券，不僅金額龐大，
而且周期也較長(zhǎng)。一般來(lái)說(shuō)，只有在利率等常規(guī)工具不再有效的情況下，貨幣當(dāng)局才會(huì)采取
這種極端做法。
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